Monday, 18 March 2013
Clairvoyance in the market
On Saturday, well before the announcement of the confiscation of Cypriot bank depositors funds, I said that Monday would be a big day. It's 6:00 am and the futures markets are signalling a 150 point drop in the DJI, a 130 point drop in the FTSE and a 183 point fall in the Euro against the dollar.
I said I would dump my shares as soon as the markets opened, but the markets have gt there before me. Can't do anything about that now except grit my teeth and swallow the loss that's coming.
Is there anything that I could have done? Yes there is and I am kicking myself about it. I have been taking sneak previews at the volume of trade in DJI stocks during the trading day to get an idea of the total market volume, which does not get published until after the close. If I had done that on Friday I would have sold my shares a day early like all those smart traders who knew what was coming and lifted that volume on Friday. No-one claims to know how they know but the chart I showed on Saturday demonstrates that they do.
My belief that "you should not listen to the rubbish that's published as news, but just watch the market" is vindicated once more.
As it is I only sold a quarter of my shares in time, and today I will have to wait till the US market opens and sell the rest in the general panic. Lesson: don't let down your guard for a moment.
Here's a picture of what the futures markets are saying.