Saturday, 16 March 2013

Big day

Margin trading

I had a thought overnight. Dr Keen's margin trading versus stock market movement chart may not be all that it seems at first sight. It presents a chicken and egg problem. Does the margin trading drive the market or does the market encourage margin trading. I would guess it's a bit of both. Nevertheless the availability and take up of credit is linked to QE. And the relationship between stock brokers and banks provides a mechanism for all that money to find its way into the market.

And what comes next?

I have been bleating incessantly: What do I do next? What should I do now?  The market continues onward and upward and I don't want to miss that train. But is it too high? Should I take my profits? Moan, moan moan.

Monday will not be like that. I know exactly what to do. Have a look at the chart. You all know hat I think about volume spikes..

When the market opens I shall sell everything. I have already dumped a quarter of my holdings as nerves  frayed. I shall try to be as quick as possible in case there is a sharp fall. With luck the market will hold up and there may be a bit of a rally. Maybe my decision will be wrong and the market will continue upwards. But I don't care. I believe that the odds have shifted and I don't want to be the wrong side of those odds. I can always buy back. But if I am right, my profits will evaporate.

And now for something completely different

A few days ago I made a cake with a difference. When I first tasted it I thought it was a mistake. It was OK but with its slightly earthy quality it was nothing to write home about. But the next day it had started to mature and over the next couple of days it turned into one of the best chocolate cakes I've ever tasted. It was very different. The chopped up chocolate gave it the texture and mouth feel of chocolate and this combined delightfully with the lightness of cake.

I mixed 175 gms of self raising flour, 50 gms of cocoa, 200 gms caster sugar, a couple of tsp of baking powder. Then I chopped up 250 gms of cooked beetroot in a food processor. Next I mixed three eggs and 200 ml of olive oil with my Baymix. This I added this to the flour mixture. I then blended all together with the Baymix. Into this mixture went the chopped beetroot, together with  a 100 gms of high quality  dark chocolate (70% cocoa) cut up into approx. half cm. squares. (My guess is that these little squares melted and re-solidified without fully blending with the rest of the mixture so giving the cake a chocolate mouth feel.)

I have bought some silicone cake tin liners from Lakeland. They are fabulous. Instead of fiddling around greasing your tins you just put one of these liners into your tin and pour or spoon in your mix. The cake comes out perfectly. I baked at 170 degrees for an hour. (But test a bit sooner with a skewer which should come out clean when the cake is done). I cooled it on a rack and kept it in an air tight tin. 

I recommend leaving the cake to mature for a day before trying it. You might like it with some cream but I like it just as it comes..

No comments: