Thursday 15 September 2011

Never be afraid to cut and run

S&P 150911
A bleak day for me as gold dropped to its support line. I dumped my remaining market shorts (too late for the FTSE) and I weeded out more of my silver. But he who fights and runs away lives to fight another day. And I have not lost too much. Still only 5% down since April and I have loads of cash. My day will come.
So what's happening. The markets are rallying but they're all inside their channels. I should pay far more attention to those lines I draw on the charts because they do work. I could make more money and lose less if I watched them more carefully and did a bit less wishful thinking.
I've done it again today. Gold touched the support line and bounced off (see yesterday's chart) and then came back down again. As I write it's sitting on the line. And starting to pull back a bit. But I've sold a chunk of my holding because I don't have the nerve to wait for it to break down. And I've been listening to too many doomsayers.This evening and tomorrow will tell if I was a coward or if I was wise.
As for the indices:

  • the FTSE is well inside its channel despite its strong rally
  • Ditto the Dow Jones
  • the S & P has broken one resistance line and is touching another (Today's chart)
Result: all bets off on what happens next. I've taken most of my money off the table.
A friend has brought the cattle situation to my attention and it does look promising. Since nothing else inspires confidence I have bought an ETF in live cattle in the US (COW). I might do a chart tomorrow to show the opportunity.

The dog had a hair cut yesterday. He hates the process but loves the effect. He is getting very old. We got him second hand from a rescue some eight years ago and at the time the vet gauged his age at six or seven so he could be fifteen or even sixteen. It seems he was ill treated before we got him and he tended to snap. But life with us has mellowed him. He is showing his age now and probably has not many months left. He is a mixture of various kinds of dog but no-one we know in the dog world can identify what goes into that mix. Tibetan Terrier is the best they can come up with, but he's long and sags in the middle.

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