End of the road?

The health of the market

When a market has had a good run it regularly pauses for breath. The question that has to be on the mind of anyone committed to the market is: Have we come to the end and should I grab my profits while I can?

Is this such a juncture? It is evidence of my nervousness that I should ask myself this question at this moment, half way through the American trading day. I immediately wonder whether I should dump some of the poorer performers in my portfolio. In the US this is not such a big decision as when trading in the UK. Spreads are tighter and there is no stamp duty to pay. The part of my portfolio that is in my ISA requires a bit more thought because of the exchanging of currency which costs a bit more than 2% for a round trip. Still I believe that not doing a trade because of cost is always a mistake when the market dictates that the trade should be done.

Here is what I am looking at in the DOW and in the S&P.

Since there is no volume data till after the market closes I have a quick look at some large cap companies in the DJI and find that the volume of trade is not particularly high. This gives me the confidence to wait till tomorrow, perhaps.

The S&P has fallen a bit more than the DOW but is currently recovering. More support for my decision to leave things as they are for the moment.

One of my kind readers, You know who you are, alerted me to a stock pick that was rather weaker than the rest, MNST. I had a look and saw he was right and ditched it. Withe the market undecided as to direction I have yet to replace it. Thanks for the heads up.

My health

I have hinted in the past that my health is not the best. I take loads of medication to keep me going. There was an interesting edition of Thinking Allowed on Radio 4  called Drugs for l
Life. Its thrust was that we are moving from medicine to cure disease: you get ill doctors provide treatment and you get better; to medicine designed to preempt health problems in the future: your blood gets tested, you are shown to be at risk of something or other and you are put on drugs for the rest of your life. The author of the book that gave rise to the item wanted to show that drug companies favour this second approach this to boost their profits.

I don't fully agree so I responded to Laurie Taylor by telling my health story.

Your item on drugs for life interested me strangely. I have yet to read the book that gave rise to the item but, from what I heard, it seemed to me that an important point was startlingly absent: the effect of the age of the population. I will give the example of my life story to illustrate.

When I was young I would expect to get ill, be treated and get better. As I grew older chronic diseases started to rear their heads.

The first sign that I was one of the 100% of people destined to die came in my early 30s when a medical for an insurance policy showed slightly elevated blood pressure. At the time I was lithe and energetic and was told to go away and not to worry.

Twenty years later I ended up in hospital with something called malignant hypertension, blood pressure so high that it would kill in the short term if left untreated. I left hospital after intensive treatment and a pile of pills to take for the rest of my life. I also had lost 25% of my kidney function and had a diagnosis of diabetes. I was told to go away, modify my diet and they would keep an eye on me.

Fast forward another 11 years  to my early 60s. My blood sugar control had deteriorated and I began my first course of blood glucose drugs. These increased gradually over the next couple of years and a statin was added.

Then a new disease struck. It was probably Lyme disease but was never diagnosed as such. This time I was in hospital for over two weeks and lost the use of my legs and hands due to neurological damage. When I left hospital my legs had recovered but not my hands and it took a neurological drug to restore my ability to use them. Another lifetime pharmaceutical to add to my list.

However, this episode was definitely a case of getting ill, being treated, and getting better (even if the doctors did not claim credit for my recovery). But I had a new diagnosis as a result of the mass of inconclusive tests that were done.

This time it was Lupus. It seems to be asymptomatic so they are keeping an eye on me but offering no treatment.

Finally my pancreas has now given up trying to produce enough insulin and I have to inject. The number of pills I take has decreased but I have to count carbohydrates.

As I move relentlessly to the point when I join the majority of all those who have ever lived, I am happy and active. I can do what I like. And I have doctors and their friends in the pharmaceutical industry to thank. Without them I would be long gone as a result of one or more of my chronic diseases, or something which I did not catch because I was inoculated.

I am very grateful for the work that their researchers have carried out on my behalf. Go for it guys. Crack the malaria parasite problem next.