Woe is me

Back after three week of absence and at the beginning of a new year for my portfolio. On the 5th April each year I cash up, review my performance for the previous year, revalue any holdings at their market price on the day, and start with a clean sheet.

 My performance last year was disastrous. Almost half my losses were chalked up during the last three weeks. I was too slow to cut my losses. I was holding a portfolio that was far too risky to be left without proper supervision and I lacked full access to data which would have warned me that a major shift was taking place in the market. Too late now to grieve, I just have to work hard to make up the losses.

A quick look at today's chart shows what has happened and also what I should have done if I'd had been able to see events unfolding more clearly:

• the support line, respected by the market since October was broken on the 6th March
• it looked like a false break down because the market recovered within a week
• support was broken again on the 20th
• this followed a sharp spike in volume on 16th, the day of a new high

Those last two events should have been my signal for retreat. I actually held my positions until the 29th March by which time my losses were dramatic. To add insult to injury one of my US holdings had it's listing suspended on 28th March. I have written off that holding and this accounts for about a third of the loss accumulated during the past three weeks.

So where are we now? Yesterday the Dow closed bellow the critical 13000 level and faces a couple of previous resistance levels which are now potential support levels. I do not hold out much hope for a happy outcome. Share prices have been riding high and we are approaching the summer which is rarely a good time for the market. I enter this period with almost 90% cash and so I am now protected from danger and will be well placed to take advantage of any rises. For me the best outcome would be a sharp market fall which would mean that bargains would reappear.

Precious metals and commodities have done no better than shares. I have no precious metals but still have my cattle holdings which are not doing well. My other holdings are tiny.