Tuesday, 3 December 2013

Time to worry

These market pull backs are always a worry. You never know how far they will go,

  • The Dow has come back one and a half percent from the high it made last Friday. 
  • The S&P is down 1%. 
  • The DAX had a really rough day today and is down 2%
  • The FTSE which made its high back at the end of October has drifted down 4% since then
  • The Nikkei is still making new highs
  • The Hang Seng is down 1% in one day
  • The Xinhua China rose a little today but is still lower than yesterday's intra-day high
Too early to call time but as you know I always worry about preserving my profits. A problem best left for tomorrow or the day after or the day after that.

I have a new question to solve. It is to do with the rules that govern the tax shelters that protect my portfolio from the Chancellor. The rules have changed so that I can now hold AIM shares in my ISA. Previously only the SIPP was eligible to hold those shares. I have a big holding of GVC, an AIM share, to which I am greatly attached:
  • it yields 11% dividend at current prices. 
  • it pays its dividend every three months
  • its dividend cover is 1.5 times
  • its PE ratio is almost 6.5 at the current price (that's an earnings yield of 15%)
  • Its EPS growth is forecast at 44% over the next 2 years
  • its PEG (Price earnings growth ratio) is 0.15 (anything below 1 is regarded as good)
  • the directors are heavily invested in the share and there has been a recent director's purchase
Now my problem is this:
  • If I move my holding to my ISA I will avoid all those ghastly FX cost problems that I have described in excruciating detail in earlier posts. I will free up cash in my SIPP that can be easily invested in foreign shares (because SIPP rules allow me to hold foreign currency.)
  • But to make the transfer I have to sell out of my SIPP and buy into my ISA. 
    • there will be brokers' fees 
    • there will be the spread between the buy price and the sell price (1.5%)
    • luckily the share is registered in the Isle of Man so it does not attract stamp duty. 

If I was confident that the share price would rise in the short term I could buy in the ISA first and then sell a higher price in the SIPP. However by any normal measure my portfolio is already overexposed by the number of shares I hold. If the price went the wrong way I would be stuffed.

Any ideas about how I can perform this trick would be gratefully received. (Remember I recommend nothing. You must do your own research)

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