Wednesday 22 May 2013

How high can it go?

The market rise continues. There is no sign if weakness in this Charles Atlas of a market. But, like all good things, it must eventually come to an end. So far there is very little sign of that. In 4 of the past 10 days the DOW has pulled back towards the end of the day suggesting that some investors are taking advantage of high prices to take profits. But there has been no upsurge in volume. Today's chart is the S&P which outshines the DOW.




This does not take away worries about what will happen next. But I am still buying and am currently 55% invested. My latest batch of purchases was on Monday when I bought GFIG, NVTL, SIRI, HILL and NAVR.

Since I started splurging my cash on 3rd May I've had 10 winners and 10 losers. That includes Monday's batch of cookies which have only just gone into the oven. If I exclude those the score is 9 to 6. I am worrying about TCX, RJET and WG which are getting close to  a 10% loss, including costs. But I am feeling smug about CIG, LGF,SAFM, SMI and HILL all of which are doing well. You can look them up on Yahoo to check out their charts. (I have provided helpful links so you just have to click to see what is happening. See how well I look after you all.)

There must be at least one cloud on the horizon. (You see how nervous I am having exposed myself to the
market). And it is provided by Colin Twiggs of Incredible Charts. He points out that the 10 year US Treasury Bond yield has broken resistance and could, I repeat could, be coming to the end of a bear trend that has lasted for 30 odd years. You will recall that very low interest rates is one of the drivers of the sock market's strength.

What may be happening is that bond investors, frustrated by low returns are pulling out and pushing down those very high bond prices. (The reciprocal of declining bond prices is higher yields). As these newly released funds are invested in the stock market they will contribute to a continuing upward trend. They may even cause an acceleration. The inevitable consequence will be lower yields on he stock market and cheaper higher yielding bonds. And then the stock market train could run into the buffers.








1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I see you have the same problem of backtesting SR as I have had. The only workround I've ever come across is to adopt the concept of the candle in control as a proxy for SR. The candle in control is the top candle with lower highs each side, or the low with two higher lows each side. You can use the (usually wider) weekly candle in control for the levels, too. Take a band from the candle extreme to the other side of the body, or the other extreme. Don't get me wrong, this is not the same as SR, and in particular does not include the important aspect of S becoming R and vice versa, but it is something that is not too difficult to code. I'm not familiar with Vectorvest, tho. I have used Updata which has its own tool button for plotting SR and their lines are quite sensible, but it's not inexpensive. Tony