Wednesday 2 July 2014

I throw in the towel

It is with the greatest trepidation that I report that I am back in the market. It's not that I have overcome fear, I am terrified, it's that I can no longer ignore what my eyes are telling me.

The dow has broken a six day downtrend to make yet another new high. (I ignore the little voice that says triple top.)



The S&P ploughs on upwards. It is now 30% above its last high and almost 90% above its low in March 2009. And I have benefitted from almost none of that activity.


The FTSE has not performed nearly so well. After a stellar start in 2009 and 2010, it has limped along. 




My performance over those years has been dismal. I have been wrong footed at every turn as the market performed well at a time when I thought disaster was about to strike.
  • I made decent money in 2009 but had my worst performance relative to the market ever.
  • I made money and comfortably outperformed the market in 2010
  • 2011 was a disaster
  • 2012 was another good year with good market outperformance
  • 2013 was another bad year (market up, me down)
In those 5 years I made a measly 24% return on capital (a bit less than 5% per year) while the market went up by 63% (Note for historic reasons I use the FTSE as my benchmark). Unfortunately I cannot live on that so I have been eating into capital. 

I turned the corner in November and I am comfortably outperforming the market with only 20% of my funds in the market. This means that the money that I have at risk has returned 39% - almost 60% on an annualised basis.

Enough of my moans, groans and self comforting revisionism. 

What I have done is bought a raft of UK shares looking for my old stalwarts - companies which are outperforming the market, have low PE and good growth prospects. To these I have added some that have exceptional dividend yields and other solid characteristics. My selection: ACHL EXI BRIT CAML - may the force be with me.

In the US I have added to my gold portfolio (which is performing well). I have chosen based on VectorVest search criteria that have been good performers recently. The selection is JOEZ ENZN FORM PQ AXAS HILL and PAM. I have also had another go at India (SCIF).

I now just hope and pray that my timing was not seriously off.

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