Friday, 28 June 2013

Wishful thinking

I'm glad I did that analysis of a bear market a couple of days ago (last post). I don't know about you but I found it an eye opening exercise.  It showed me how hard it is to interpret what is happening day to day without the benefit of hindsight and how tricky the market is. It does all it can to blindside you as it winds down and doing all it can to take your money on the way. I'm hoping that my new support and resistance (S&R) timing strategy will help my to avoid most of the pitfalls. The backtests which I ran to check out my theoretical  performance suggest it will be a good guide. I plan to do comparative studies of how well VV timing strategies compare with my S&R method through the 2008-9 bear market and I shall report back.

So where are we now? I pointed out the volume spike that occurred on the 21st and showed how often a volume spike warns of a change in direction. Rather disingenuously I wondered whether the spike was a late signal of the pull back that had begun a couple of days previously. That was just wishful thinking on my part. I've pulled out of the market and I was looking for confirmation that I had done the right thing. Instead the spike was warning that the bulls would return to take advantage of the pull back. On the Friday the 21st and on the Monday the smart money merchants were squeezing shares out of nervous bears and they have enjoyed a nice little run up since.

I just sit and wait. There needs to be a further move up before my signal fires. Am I missing a run up? Yes I am. But it could still be a false dawn.

I rarely remember my dreams but last night I dreamt of how I should set about reentering the market. I wonder what that means?

Vector Vest Seminars

Did you notice that my fulsome praise for David Paul's Vector Vest presentation is now being used to endorse his seminars. I am delighted that VV consider my candid comments worth repeating. David ought to have an easy job selling what is the very best market analysis product I have ever come across. But people have a hard time recognizing a good thing when they see it.

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