Thursday 21 February 2013

Where now for QE?


It’s all money


It’s been a while since I’ve seriously had to bite my nails but today is one of those days.

I don’t think I have explained an important part of my trading philosophy for some time. It’s something that a lot of people find hard to understand. Put simply it is this: it’s all money. Most people think that think there is capital and there is income. For me there is no difference. Over the past few weeks my portfolio has been rising in value in leaps and bounds and I am sitting of a profit of some 14% on my capital (capital being my word for my starting stake). At this moment I am almost fully invested so all of my money: the amount I started with plus the running profit can best be described as money at risk –because it could all vanish in a flash. If I sell all my shares the money is no longer at risk and I have crystallised my 14% of profits. I can walk away and spend the profits and I am no worse off than I was at the beginning of this bout of trading. Any dividends I pick up on the way are part, albeit a small part, of that profit. When I feel confident I can start all over again.

Bite those nails


Yesterday the US market took a tumble in the evening. All part of the daily ups and downs except – the immediate reason for that fall was a comment by the US Federal Reserve that they might reduce quantitative easing. Those of you that have been paying attention will know QE is my big bug bear. I think it is the reason for the giddy ascent of the stock market. That market, I believe, is where all that money has gone. There has been no serious, sustained inflation anywhere else. Journalists have a job that makes them too hyper to pause to understand anything much. They are saying traders think less QE will hurt the economy. The market is affected by the fear that the taps will be turned off and no more money will flow into shares.

So I must bite my nails. Should I liquidate and realise those tasty profits of mine before they evaporate? Or is this a blip? This afternoon I shall have to decide.

STOP PRESS I have sold all my wife's shares and am bracing myself for a sell off of my own this afternoon.



Fences, starringLenny Henry


Why was I not at home watching when all this came to pass? Because I was privileged to be at a fabulous opening night at the Theatre Royal in Bath. A stunning cast: Lenny Henry, Tanya Moodie, Colin McFarlane, Terence Maynard Ashley Zhangazha, Peter Bankole and Tranae Sinclair acted their socks off and created a stunning rendition of August Wilson’s FENCES.


I had not heard of Wilson before. He died aged sixty in 2005 having created a cycle of ten plays called the Pittsburgh Cycle and picked up two Pulitzer Prizes on the way.

He was born to a Sudeten German Father and an African American mother in the Hill District of Pittsburgh. His plays deal with the African American experience, each set in a different decade. FENCES treats  the 1950s. The play is beautifully constructed and is littered with wonderful lines. It tells the story of a life without resorting to an obvious plot line.

Lenny Henry gave a stunning portrayal of the stereotypical Afro-American father, Troy, whose three children are borne by three different women (Interestingly it was Wilson’s white father who was absent from his childhood.) But less stereotypically Troy is driven to stay and support his wife Rose and son Cory by a profound sense of duty. A lesser performance than that given by Tanya Moodie as Rose, Troy’s wife, would have ruined the balance that was necessary to carry off a true rendition of this relationship. Her character is a match for Troy and Moodie depicts this perfectly– anything less would have failed. 

Colin McFarlane gives fantastic support as Troy’s lifetime friend, Jim Bono. He matches Henry in long scenes of banter which describe black working class life. Its spells of imprisonment and years of hard, unrelenting graft. A small but important detail is that the accents are convincing and never slip for a moment

Ashley Zhangazha shows the fear and suffering that made life so difficult for the son of an overbearing father. He also shares a beautifully executed and moving duet with Tranae Sinclair as the threads of the story weave towards their conclusion.

Terence Maynard completes the picture that Wilson draws of his main character – acting the part of his mad brother. It falls to Maynard to carry off a terrifying tour de force – a mad comment on the pain of life – which closes the play.

A night to remember. Don’t forget to go. This production deserves to succeed.

STOP PRESS I have sold all my wife's shares and am bracing myself for a sell off of my own this afternoon.

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